Where are America’s Commercial Space Stations in 2025?

Last summer, Space Scout explored NASA’s plans to retire the International Space Station by 2031 and replace it with commercial stations. One year later, the landscape has shifted. Vast has emerged as a dark horse to rival Axiom, which has adjusted and accelerated its own timeline; Starlab is pushing through detail design, while Orbital Reef lags behind. At the same time, China has established a firm presence in space through its Tiangong station, and is poised to strengthen that foothold in the coming years. As America’s posture in low Earth orbit threatens to slip away, where are its commercial stations in 2025?

NASA intends to replace the ISS with commercially-built space stations through its Commercial LEO Development (CLD) program. Phase 1 of this program is maturing designs for several options; Axiom received an award in 2020 to attach at least one module to the ISS, while a handful of free-flying stations were funded for study in late 2021. In Phase 2, NASA will choose one or more destinations to receive official certification and provide operational services. This award is currently planned for mid-2026.

NASA has long sought to maintain a continuous presence of people living, working, and conducting scientific research in space. In its Low Earth Orbit Microgravity Strategy, published in December of last year, NASA reaffirms its desire for a “24/7” presence, as is currently maintained on the ISS, but concedes that the commercial transition might leave gaps in this “heartbeat.” That possibility is now a near certainty; none of the current candidates to replace the ISS will match its capabilities right away, if any are launched before the ISS meets its end.

Vast

Vast is easily the most disruptive contender in 2025. The company announced the development of a small space station, Haven-1, in 2023, long after NASA had already awarded Phase 1 CLD funding. Last June, only a pathfinder of the primary structure had been completed. Since then, however, the station passed a NASA-supported Preliminary Design Review, Vast built a qualification article that passed early proof testing in January of 2025, and the flight article is now being manufactured for launch no earlier than May of 2026. As of this May, a satellite testbed for Haven’s systems was undergoing final testing for a launch in late 2025.

Though Vast is on track to fly its station before any funded CLD partners, Haven-1 is far from an ISS replacement. The single module will support a crew of four astronauts for up to two weeks at a time, and may only host four such missions before it is decommissioned about three years after launch. So far, Vast has enjoyed NASA guidance as an unfunded CLD partner, but the company hopes that flying Haven-1 will prove its merit to NASA before the agency awards funding for Phase 2. Vast’s vision for a proper CLD station, Haven-2, would consist of up to 8 similar modules arranged around a larger core.

Similarly, Vast plans to bid for NASA’s next Private Astronaut Missions to the ISS, and has preemptively partnered with SpaceX to procure seats on Crew Dragon. If successful, these would be the first such missions not awarded to CLD rival Axiom Space, granting Vast additional crewed spaceflight experience. Still, these ambitions are giant leaps for a novice company rushing to meet an aggressive schedule. Vast’s plan to undercut more established CLD players depends on its debut product being successful enough to impress NASA, a tall order for the company’s first try at a station. This gambit may also depend on NASA’s ability to fund multiple providers in Phase 2; the Artemis HLS award demonstrated how competent players can be left out if the agency can’t afford more than one selection. So while Vast may be the first to fly, whether it will survive until 2028 to launch the first module of Haven-2 is an open question.

Axiom Station

Axiom Space is the only CLD partner building flight hardware for a mature destination, far outpacing Starlab or Orbital Reef. However, Axiom Station has undergone significant changes in the past few months, betraying tension between its development timeline and the ISS’ limited lifespan. As the sole awardee in the Commercial Destinations for ISS branch of the CLD program, Axiom originally envisioned that its modular station would be built up while docked to the ISS, later separating to become an independent free-flying destination. But the United States Deorbit Vehicle (USDV), which will push the ISS into Earth’s atmosphere at the end of its life, was meant to use the same forward docking port as Axiom Station, and delays to Axiom’s modules pushed these two users into conflict.

In December of 2024, Axiom adjusted their plan to instead use a berthing port underneath the ISS, allowing Axiom Station and the USDV to occupy the ISS at the same time. Furthermore, the revised assembly sequence means only one of Axiom’s modules, the Payload Power Thermal Module (AxPPTM), will ever dock to the ISS. Upon the launch of the second module, Habitat 1 (AxH1), AxPPTM will separate and fly out to meet it. The new plan helps Axiom escape the ISS before deorbit operations begin, but also requires each module to loiter in orbit alone. This required a redistribution of systems like solar power and thermal control, abandoning an older design that concentrated these functions in a single “tower.”

Structures for the AxPPTM, AxH1, and AxH2 modules are all being manufactured by Thales Alenia Space in Turin, Italy. Because of the new assembly order, parts originally meant for AxH1 and AxH2 are being repurposed to accelerate completion of AxPPTM, which is expected to ship to Houston for further assembly in Fall 2025. The module is planned to launch to the ISS in 2027, followed by AxH1 in 2028. This puts Axiom Station’s timeline in close competition with Vast’s Haven-2, should the latter make it to flight, creating the intriguing possibility of two commercial stations racing to build up parallel capabilities and capture market demand. Still, Axiom is certainly the more experienced of the two, with three crewed missions to the ISS under its belt and several years of lead in design and manufacturing.

Starlab

The joint venture of organizations including Voyager Technologies, Airbus, Mitsubishi Corporation and MDA Space recently rebranded as Starlab Space, after their eponymous space station. Last year, the group was focused on building a wide-ranging network of partnerships with both commercial and international agencies, including commercial resupply through an agreement with The Exploration Company. Starlab has sought to foster strong relationships with the international community, which we identified in our previous article as an important part of any true ISS replacement. Closing the business case will be as important for the success of CLD stations as the engineering side.

Starlab’s design was in flux last year, after pivoting from an inflatable design to a large rigid metallic pressure vessel. In March of 2025, the station passed its Preliminary Design Review with NASA, solidifying the updated design for more detailed work. The company has begun human-in-the-loop testing to evaluate interior concepts, and a high-fidelity mockup should appear at NASA’s Johnson Space Center this summer. Plans for structural test articles were also approved in the past year, and Starlab intends to begin manufacturing these articles later in 2025. A Critical Design Review could follow by early 2026, allowing the station to proceed into full flight manufacturing.

Unlike its CLD competitors, Starlab is a single-module station that can be launched all at once. As of March 2025, Starlab was targeting a launch in 2029 aboard SpaceX’s Starship rocket, one of few launch vehicles that can accommodate its large diameter. While this is later than its competitors, Starlab would reach its full capacity instantly, potentially leapfrogging ahead of modular designs like Axiom Station or Haven-2 which might be in progress. The station’s docking ports also enable future expansion, and Starlab’s CEO Tim Kopra has even suggested launching additional Starlabs if demand exists.

Orbital Reef

A collaboration between Blue Origin and Sierra Space, Orbital Reef is the most enigmatic of the Phase 1 CLD partners. One year ago, both companies shared milestone progress: Sierra Space had begun a burst test campaign for its inflatable LIFE modules, while Blue Origin had completed life support tests to NASA’s approval. In the past year, however, news of the station’s progress from either partner has been sparse.

A NASA blog post in April 2025 reported that Blue Origin had performed human-in-the-loop mockup testing of the station’s interior. In November of 2024, Sierra Space completed its burst test campaign, and in April 2025 completed hypervelocity impact testing for LIFE—though neither press release mentions Orbital Reef. Older NASA updates on the CLD program show that Orbital Reef’s Preliminary Design Review had already pushed from 2023 into mid-2024, and apparently still has not been completed in mid-2025, putting the station’s progress behind Starlab.

Slower progress for Orbital Reef is not unexpected, as both of its parent companies are occupied with other projects. Sierra Space has spent the past year wrangling its first Dream Chaser spaceplane, Tenacity, whose debut flight to the ISS has slipped at least a year as testing in Florida marches on. Blue Origin, meanwhile, finally launched its first New Glenn rocket into orbit in January of 2025, and has been juggling the next few vehicles on its launch manifest while also preparing its first Blue Moon spacecraft for a Moon landing attempt later this year. New Glenn will be required to launch Orbital Reef’s large core modules, so these flights do support the station campaign, albeit obliquely. Nonetheless, Orbital Reef does not seem like an immediate priority for either company at the moment.

Where Things Stand

While Vast’s rapid pace will likely make Haven-1 America’s first commercial station, the company has a long way to go to compete in Phase 2. Still, being first may help Vast establish a foothold in a research market whose exact shape and size is still very unclear. Even the station’s handful of experiment lockers might be inundated with demand spilling from the overbooked ISS. And if 2028 is at all feasible for Haven-2, Vast could find itself evenly matched with Axiom in NASA’s eyes.

Axiom is in the lead by far from a technical perspective, with flight hardware for its ISS replacement already coming together. The company has a leg up with human spaceflight operations experience from its private astronaut missions, and seems at a glance like a safe option for Phase 2. But reporting in the past year from Forbes and other sources has exposed financial challenges at the company, which has at times struggled to pay for its missions. Axiom Station may be furthest ahead, but Axiom’s apparently unstable business situation casts doubt on its ability to sustain an entire space station all on its own.

By contrast, where Axiom has various studies in work for uses of its station, Starlab already has flights booked from international suppliers. Successfully courting these users could represent a significant strength for the Phase 2 award evaluation, and Starlab’s technical readiness is quickly catching up to its peers. If the company continues meeting design milestones this year, it could present a solid choice for NASA, and one which doesn’t need a multi-year assembly campaign.

Finally, Orbital Reef’s sluggish pace has landed it firmly in last place. While there’s no reason to believe the station is struggling technically, the apparent lack of urgency compared to its competitors could put Reef at a major disadvantage when it comes time for NASA to award Phase 2 funding.

For America’s future in Earth orbit, time is of the essence. It’s clear now that the ISS will not have a full-scale replacement ready for a direct “handover” of capabilities before its demise. Meanwhile, China’s impressive Tiangong station has been fully operational and courting international partnerships for some time. Chinese media recently reported that several further expansions are planned in the near future—just as American capabilities are set to wane.

NASA also desperately needs clear priorities under the Trump administration. Elon Musk, previously a major influence on the president’s policy, has advocated for retiring the ISS sooner than planned to prioritize missions to Mars. Trump’s previous pick for NASA administrator, Jared Isaacman, broadly supported this strategy during his Senate hearing. Although the president’s FY2026 budget request funds Commercial LEO Development near previous levels, it also proposes “a rescoping of the CLD Phase 2 certification and services acquisition plan,” without elaborating on what that strategy might entail.

Now that Musk and Isaacman have both lost Trump’s favor, it’s hard to know how ISS retirement plans will fare as uncertainty continues to plague the agency. Without stable investment and support from NASA, it’s unlikely that any of these commercial companies can support their stations independently. What is clear is that the selection of NASA’s next orbiting laboratory will depend as much on political circumstance as it does the technical prowess of its designers—in that respect, a worthy successor to the International Space Station.